'Hawk Talk

‘Hawk Talk – March 2026

March 2, 2026

Music May Be Different, but the Song Remains (Almost) the Same

As we welcome spring and turn the page toward the end of Q1, 2026, I want to begin where I always prefer, with gratitude. Your trust and partnership are the cornerstones of BluHawk Wealth Management, and we are deeply thankful for the opportunity to serve each of you. This work is personal for our entire team, and we never take it for granted.

Now, to the investment landscape and the reason for this letter’s title. The political and policy backdrop has been noisy: tariff rhetoric, a federal government shutdown (for now resolved), and the confirmation of a new Federal Reserve chair have all fueled bouts of volatility, to name just a few. An now, more turmoil in the Middle East.

The music playing in the background sounds different than it did a few months ago, or even a year ago.

But when we assess the fundamental song, the underlying economic and market conditions that we believe are most likely to influence investment outcomes, the melody remains remarkably familiar, and still appears fairly constructive.

Our proprietary BHWM S&P 500 Economic & Market Conditions assessment now assigns a composite grade of B- (79 out of 100). The most recent inflation report came in fairly high, combined with weaker than expected Q4 GDP, which sets up some challenges for the incoming Fed Chair.

All of that said…

We remain confident in the potential for a successful overall navigation of recent and expected bouts of volatility over the longer-term.

We anticipate continued bouts of volatility simply because as this backdrop; the potential re-emergence of inflation, tariff uncertainty, the Fed leadership transition, the Middle East Conflict, and political positioning play out, a lack of a clear direction will likely reign for a time. The weight of the evidence, in our view, however, points to an economy and earnings environment with the potential to support markets as we move into the middle and even latter months of 2026, the unexpected current events notwithstanding.

As always, we are open to discussion should there be a meaningful change in your personal financial or life status, or your comfort level with investment risk.

Prepping those of you in and approaching retirement for future market dislocations that will inevitably come is an imperative, ie. filling your investment bucket #1.

Please don’t hesitate to respond to any of our team’s outreach(s), or get on our calendar between regular meetings. We’ve recently connected with many of you for reviews and planning work, and it has been a genuine pleasure catching up. For those we have yet to connect with in 2026, we look forward to doing so soon.