'Hawk Talk

‘Hawk Talk – August 2026

July 29, 2026

A Note from the Founder: The Dog Days

Welcome to the Dog Days of Summer; that lazy, hazy stretch when trading desks thin out, the news cycle gets louder to fill the quiet, and even the most energetic among us (Obie included) prefer a shady porch to a busy schedule. But this August, the temperature isn’t the only thing heating up. With the midterm elections now less than ninety days away, the airwaves, feeds, and dinner-table conversations may become increasingly consumed with one question: who will control Congress come November?

Let me be clear: these elections matter.

Control of the House and Senate will shape real policy outcomes on taxes, spending, regulation, trade, and more, and those choices matter deeply to the direction of this great country. I encourage every one of you to stay informed, engage thoughtfully, and above all, vote. Civic participation is one investment that never carries a downside.

But here is where I’d gently separate the citizen’s hat from the investor’s hat. History suggests that which party controls Congress has not been a reliable predictor of stock market returns. Since 1950, the S&P 500 has finished higher in roughly three out of every four years whether Congress was unified Democratic, unified Republican, or split down the middle, and the differences in average returns across those configurations fall well within the normal noise of markets.

What has separated the good years from the painful ones is not the party in power but the health of the economy:

Years when a recession took hold have averaged negative returns, while years without one have averaged solid double-digit gains. Or, as Obie’s new campaign hat puts it: “It’s the Economy, Stupid!”

And on that front, (Obie having “borrowed” that line from a decades past ubiquitous campaign advisor to soon-to-be President (Bill) Clinton) the news remains generally constructive. As of this writing, the economic expansion continues, financial conditions are mostly stable, and the indicators we watch closely suggest that recession risk, while never zero, appears to be into the future. That is no reason for complacency; conditions can and do change, and we will keep watching them for you. It is, however, a good reason to stay anchored to your plan rather than to the polls, and to let diversification, discipline, and time do the heavy lifting they have always done.

Finally, a bit of fun for the season:

We know Obie isn’t the only political pup out there. Send us your own original or AI-generated animations and “enhanced” pictures of your doggos with an election-themed twist, top hats, podiums, campaign buttons, whatever your imagination (or your favorite AI tool) can muster. We’ll feature our favorites in upcoming issues of Hawk Talk! Reply to this email with your submissions.